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Sao Paulo stinker for Mercedes but what next for Hamilton and co.?

By Tom Gibson | November 7, 2023

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The Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton was just 10 seconds away from being lapped by Max Verstappen this weekend as the W14 produced one of its worst performances to date.

Sao Paulo stinker for Mercedes but what next for Hamilton and co.?

Mercedes have struggled with several lows in the last two years but this was arguably the most despondent we’ve seen team boss Toto Wolff.

Having watched Red Bull equal his own team’s record of 19 wins in a year, Wolff said the performance of his W14 was a ‘nightmare’ and it’s led to questions about just if Mercedes can bounce back.

Mercedes won eight straight constructors titles from 2014 to 2021, but the team have now only won one race in the last two years and in that time have struggled hugely with both the W13 and W14 - seemingly being unable to identify core problems with either.

And although there have been promising signs in the last few races with Hamilton driving to a strong second place at Austin before being disqualified for a low ride height, the unpredictability of performance that they can’t get on top of has now left many wondering if, and not when, they will return to the top of the sport.

Such a question seemed unimaginable 24 months ago, but then fans and writers would’ve said the same about McLaren, Ferrari and Williams who each enjoyed spells of domination in the last 30 years before drifting off into the wilderness.

Speaking after the race on Sunday, Wolf said: "We ran the car way too high. It's something that you probably feel that you carry that on [after what happened in Austin]. But that wasn't the main reason for an absolute off weekend in terms of performance.

"There was something fundamentally wrong mechanically. It's not a rear wing, and it's not the car being slightly too high because we're talking a millimetre or two less.

"That is [worth] performance but it's not the explanation for total off [weekend]."

What perhaps made this even worse for Mercedes is that last year at the very same circuit was where Mercedes did pick up its only win in the last two years under George Russell, with Hamilton finishing second.

"From a really quick car, really well balanced, drivers happy, to a nightmare. How's that even possible? What is it that's not right? I wouldn't be surprised if we analysed the cars in the next few days and we find out that there was a mechanical issue in the way we set them up. I don't know what that would have been."

And it's clear from onlookers that Mercedes simply don’t carry the same weight of authority they once did. When at the peak of their powers they would almost always make the smartest strategy calls, have pit-stop times that would be amongst the best and largely be able to identify the right set up direction in FP1.

But it was almost a surprise to see them deliver a quick 2.6 second stop this weekend while they’ve been slow to react from a strategy perspective at numerous races – including in Austin where a call to pit within a lap of Verstappen probably would’ve seen Hamilton take the chequered flag.

Where this leads us for 2024 is anyone’s guess but F1 is badly in need of a two-team championship fight and if Mercedes can’t deliver that challenge to Red Bull then it’s difficult to see who can. 

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