TL;DR UK petrol prices could rise quickly as the US–Iran conflict disrupts global oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for 20% of the world’s oil and gas. Brent crude has already jumped above $80 a barrel, and experts warn drivers could see record pump prices within weeks. Planned fuel duty increases may add further pressure, potentially pushing petrol towards 142.5p per litre.
UK drivers are being warned that petrol prices could rise sharply if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to disrupt global oil supplies.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated after airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on targets in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq. Fighting is ongoing, with further strikes reported across the region. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a targeted attack, and senior officials have said they will not enter negotiations with the US.
One of the main concerns for global energy markets is the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow stretch of water connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is a key route for oil exports. Around 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through it.
Following recent attacks on ships near the strait, several oil companies have suspended shipments. Iran has also warned vessels against using the route, effectively bringing traffic at the entrance to a halt. The Strait lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the UAE to the south. With missiles reportedly flying over the area, shipping companies are facing significant risks.
What does this mean for UK petrol prices?
The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, rose to $82 a barrel on Monday, up more than 10%. It had already reached a seven-month high of $73 before the weekend’s escalation and later eased back to $79. However, analysts warn that prices could climb again if the conflict continues.
Higher oil prices usually feed through to higher pump prices in the UK. Edmund King, president of the AA, said the disruption could quickly affect drivers.
He warned that turmoil in the Middle East is likely to disrupt global oil distribution, leading to higher fuel prices. According to him, drivers could see record prices at the pumps within 10 to 12 days if the situation worsens.
There is also pressure from changes to fuel duty. The 5p-per-litre cut introduced in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being phased out. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced that fuel duty will rise by 1p in September, 2p in December and a further 2p in March 2027.
Petrol currently averages 132.9p per litre, according to the AA. Once the full 5p cut is reversed, and if oil prices remain volatile, pump prices could rise to around 142.5p per litre - close to the highest levels seen before the pandemic.
