Electric vehicles are on track to outnumber diesel cars on Britain’s roads by the end of this decade, according to new analysis of the nation’s motor parc.
Diesel’s decline began after the 2015 emissions scandal, and it’s been losing ground ever since. With new Government targets pushing carmakers to boost EV sales every year until 2035, think tank New AutoMotive says it’s only a matter of time before electric overtakes diesel, and it’ll happen sooner than many expect.
As of mid-2025, there were 9.9 million diesels on UK roads, down 21% from their 2015 peak of 12.4 million. EVs, meanwhile, have surged to around 1.7 million. That gap may look huge, but with electric sales growing fast and diesel registrations falling fast, the crossover point is projected to happen by 2030.
Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, said: “Ending the use of diesel is essential to clean up Britain's choking cities. The UK is now rolling out electric cars at a rapid pace, and this is great news for everyone that enjoys clean air, quieter streets and really cheap running costs."
In 2025, Brits bought or leased almost 475,000 new EVs, nearly one in four new cars. That’s up 24% from 2024’s figure, but still short of the Government’s 2026 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate target of 28%. Car manufacturers that fall short risk big fines, though hybrid models and low-emission petrol cars are helping them stay compliant for now.
By contrast, diesel sales have collapsed. Only around 104,000 new diesel cars hit UK roads last year, just 5% of total sales and down from 1.28 million in 2015, when diesel accounted for nearly half the market.
Today, diesel cars make up 32% of all vehicles on UK roads, compared with just 4% for EVs. But that balance is changing fast. New AutoMotive predicts:
- By the end of 2026: 8.77 million diesels vs 2.38 million EVs
- By 2028: 7.04 million diesels vs 4.14 million EVs
- By 2029: diesels will still lead with 6.08 million, but EVs will be close behind at 5.42 million
- By 2030: EVs pull ahead with around 7 million compared to just 5 million diesels
Nelmes added: “The UK imports billions of pounds of diesel every year, and we have been completely reliant on other countries to feed our thirst."
"Thankfully, we're switching to electric cars at a rapid rate, and that will make the country cleaner and wealthier."
While diesel cars fade, vans are a different story. The number of diesel-powered vans has continued to rise, hitting a record 4.4 million as businesses remain cautious about switching to electric. In cities, though, it’s a different picture - drivers are ditching diesel to avoid costly emission zone charges, pushing older models into more rural areas.
Environmental expert Matt Finch summed it up neatly: “We didn't leave the stone age because we ran out of stones, and we're leaving the diesel age because we now have a far better replacement."
"No one is denying diesel hasn't been useful, but it has had its day."
Ginny Buckley, CEO of Electrifying.com, agreed: "Diesel isn't being phased out - it's being replaced.
"The surge in electric car sales has sounded its death knell, exposing diesel as old technology in a market that's moved on.
"Drivers aren't making a political statement they're simply doing the maths.
"EVs are cheaper to run, cleaner to live with and increasingly powered by energy we generate here in the UK rather than imported oil.
"This isn't a culture war - it's a technology upgrade."
According to New AutoMotive, London is on course to become the UK’s first diesel-free city by 2030 thanks to the Ultra Low Emission Zone. Diesel pumps could start disappearing from capital fuel stations the same year, and by 2035, over 8,000 filling stations nationwide are expected to stop selling diesel altogether.
John Lewis, boss of charging provider char.gy, said this transition will reshape local infrastructure: “The data shows diesel will disappear first in towns and cities, and that's exactly where the need for local, everyday charging is growing fastest.
"Over the next decade, as some filling stations stop stocking diesel, communities will see more reliable on-street charging close to home emerge as a clear alternative."
The message is clear - the diesel era is ending, and the next chapter of British motoring will be electric.
